- Funding Programme
- Year
- 2022
Building Forecasting and Analytical Tools within the National Commission of Strategy and Prognosis (NCSP) in Romania
The European Commission supported Romania’s National Commission for Strategy and Prognosis (NCSP) in developing a new short-term macroeconomic forecasting model and building institutional capacity. It aimed to strengthen Romania’s forecasting and analytical tools for better economic planning and policymaking aligned with EU strategic priorities.
Context
Romania’s NCSP plays a key role in economic policy evaluation and forecasting but relied on outdated models. In response to country-specific recommendations and the need to align with the Recovery and Resilience Facility and EU Green Deal, the Commission requested technical support to enhance its modelling capabilities. The project addressed these needs by supporting the creation of modern forecasting tools and aligning institutional practices with best EU standards. Challenges included aligning the model with Romania’s economic complexity and ensuring user capacity across different technical profiles.
Support delivered
The 18-month project (2022–2024), funded by the EU through the TSI and coordinated by DG REFORM, was implemented by AARC/NOVA SBE in close cooperation with NCSP. It delivered a short-term forecasting model tailored to Romania, user manuals, and extensive training. Activities included consultations, modelling, calibration, and capacity building via over 90 hours of training in macroeconomic forecasting and software. A Strategic Consultancy Workshop and ongoing feedback loops ensured relevance and ownership. The project addressed Romania’s specific policy challenges and aimed to modernize its public financial and economic planning frameworks.
Results achieved
The project substantially strengthened NCSP’s forecasting capacity, with a new model now used operationally to produce GDP forecasts and sectoral projections. The tool supports more accurate macroeconomic analyses, aligning Romania’s public policies with EU fiscal frameworks and resilience objectives. Over 20 NCSP staff were trained, with very high satisfaction scores. The project also fostered internal reforms, improved data handling practices, and laid the groundwork for future adoption of structural and DSGE models. As a result, Romania is now better equipped to assess fiscal policies and external shocks using state-of-the-art economic modelling.
More about the project
You can read the documents related to the project here: