Innovative approaches to address negative demographic trends in Bulgaria

Innovative approaches to address negative demographic trends in Bulgaria

The European Commission has supported the Ministry of Labour and Social Policy in Bulgaria to carry out an interim evaluation of Bulgaria’s National Strategy for Demographic Development (2012-2030). Coupled with a comparative good practice review and peer-to-peer, policy workshops on matters pertaining to family support and protection, support for the elderly population, and territorial disparities, the project has produced targeted policy recommendations and prototype pilot proposals, to inform the update of the existing Strategy, and support its effective implementation. 

Context

Bulgaria faces severe demographic pressure from low fertility, high emigration and longer life expectancy, resulting in a shrinking, ageing population. In the past decade, it recorded one of Europe’s steepest population declines, alongside widening regional disparities: population is concentrating in urban areas while rural regions are depopulating. Although education, labour market participation and health outcomes have improved, Bulgaria still trails behind most EU countries and remains among the new Member States with the lowest human capital index.

To address these trends, Bulgaria adopted an updated National Strategy for Demographic Development 2012–2030, building on the earlier 2006–2020 strategy. Its goals are to slow negative demographic change, strengthen human capital and improve adaptation to ageing. Two central priorities are family support policies that encourage childbirth and child-rearing, and a cross-sectoral approach to active and healthy ageing. Reforms have included higher financial support for families, expanded childcare for children aged four to six, a higher pensionable age, labour market measures for people aged 50+, and complementary strategies on long-term care and active ageing. However, these reforms have not yet been systematically evaluated, and questions remain about their coordination, coherence and impact, including on territorial disparities. 

Support delivered

The project delivered five main strands of work in support of Bulgaria’s National Demographic Strategy.

Activity 1: Interim evaluation of the Strategy
An interim evaluation of the National Demographic Strategy was carried out, with a focus on Strategic Directions 1, 7 and 11 (centered around support for families, support for the elderly population, and combatting territorial disparities, respectively). The work included desk research on legislation, strategies, budgets and relevant literature; interviews and focus groups with stakeholders and beneficiaries; analysis of administrative, survey and census data; consultations and technical meetings with national experts; and one workshop to identify strengths and areas for improvement.
Key outputs: an Evaluation Report covering Directions 1, 7 and 11, and one consultation workshop.

Activity 2: Comparative review and peer learning
A comparative review of good practice was conducted, focusing on 5–8 EU countries and, where relevant, other OECD countries. The work drew on desk research, stakeholder consultations, and interviews with experts and programme administrators. It also included three international workshops and one study visit for a Bulgarian delegation to examine selected policy designs and implementation arrangements.
Key outputs: a comparative review, three international workshops, and one study visit.

Activity 3: Recommendations for updating the Strategy
Findings from the evaluation and comparative review were synthesised into recommendations for updating the Strategy. These addressed policy design, implementation arrangements, institutional roles, monitoring and evaluation, and funding sources. Draft recommendations were discussed through stakeholder consultations and a validation workshop.
Key outputs: a Draft Recommendations Report and one validation workshop.

Activity 4: Prototype pilot proposals
Preparatory research, data analysis and simulations were undertaken, alongside stakeholder consultations and beneficiary-focused research. This informed the development of two prototype pilot proposals, including objectives, target groups, interventions, territorial aspects, and monitoring and evaluation approaches.
Key outputs: two Prototype Pilot Proposals.

Activity 5: Dissemination and final conference
Communication materials were developed, including a final report and 1–3 policy briefs, and a final in-person conference was held in Sofia to disseminate findings and lessons learned.
Key outputs: the final report and the final conference.

Expected results

The project has delivered a concrete evidence base, policy assessment, and operational recommendations that strengthen Bulgaria’s capacity to act on demographic change under its National Strategy for Demographic Development. 

As a result, the Bulgarian authorities have been equipped with a clearer basis to prioritise reforms, align demographic objectives with sectoral policies, improve coordination across institutions, and move towards more evidence-based and results-oriented implementation, including through stronger monitoring systems, linked data, multi-annual planning, and better use of national and EU funding. 

As a next step in the implementation process, the Bulgarian authorities are expected to take forward the recommended reforms in the relevant focus areas; strengthen governance and feedback mechanisms between the demographic strategy and sectoral strategies; build the proposed monitoring and evaluation architecture; and improve funding continuity and implementation capacity, so that the Strategy can move from partial implementation towards a more coherent and sustainable policy response to evolving demographic challenges.